We are living through some challenging times - both professionally and personally.  Some say the mass hysteria caused by the global pandemic is the root cause.  Some say that this health crisis made clear for the first time in over a decade that our nation’s economy is not as strong as many believed.  Still others have found some comfort in various conspiracy theories that attempt to explain how all of this is happening.  But no matter what you believe – the reality is we are living through a Black Swan event. 

A Black Swan is an extremely rare event that is way beyond what is normally expected and brings with it powerful consequences and changes.  Even with the benefit of hindsight – most experts find it difficult to ever conclude that they could have predicted the event in advance no matter what tools, data, and philosophies they use.  Once the event has subsided – life and things don’t just go back to normal.  There are permanent changes. 

As I brainstormed and prepared to write this article – my initial goal was to share some thoughts about how this event could be impacting individuals/families in recovery – especially early recovery.  I intended to focus on everything that providers are doing in order to continue to support people and the community.  I had a list of the various technologies, apps, and websites that everyone is using or could be using.

But then a very different idea developed in my mind and spirit: Recovery is a Black Swan event.  A positive event for sure – but Black Swan in nature: Rare, Unexpected, Unpredictable, Difficult to Explain, and Life-Changing.  Every person who has initiated and sustained recovery experienced their own Black Swan.  In the 12-Step programs – it would be called a Spiritual Awakening.  Eastern philosophies may define the event as a personal re-connection with the natural, healthy self and the oneness of everything.  Some call it the gift of despair and surrender.  It’s a Black Swan.

Take, for example, a 23-year old young woman – ten hospitalizations, experienced homelessness, a college drop-out, living with her parents, father is unemployed, and everyone is struggling.  In this environment and with this history – how could her successful recovery be predicted?  How much hope could there be that she would experience a rare and powerful recovery?  How do we explain her decision to deliver sandwiches to others experiencing homelessness and addiction?  Today – she is approaching four years in recovery.  How do we explain this?  Hard work?  Yes.  Massive amounts of help and support?  You bet.  Predictable?  No.  Difficult to explain?  Yes.  Life-Changing?  For sure.  It’s a Black Swan. 

Consider, for a moment, a 72-year old woman sitting in an inpatient facility for the first time in her life while the outside world is experiencing this global crisis.  She is basically disconnected from her family right now – hopefully addressing the crisis in her own life.  In the spirit of complete transparency – this woman is a family-member of mine.  Will she experience her own Black Swan?  I have no idea.  The very nature of a Black Swan is that we have no idea.  She is aging.  Her mental health has been declining for years.  Her marriage is often toxic.  And she turns to alcohol to deal with her life issues.  How do we predict a successful recovery for her?  I’m not aware of many good metrics for this.  What I do know is that time is running out for her.  Her Black Swan needs to appear and it needs to be embraced.

As professionals in the treatment and recovery support field – it’s clear to me that we have a huge job right now.  If we believe in both versions of the Black Swan – the positive, individual version and the unfortunate, global-event version – then our job is to support the one within the challenging realities of the other.  As if our jobs weren’t hard enough already.

But let’s use whatever means available to encourage some positive, individual Black Swans.  One way or another – no matter how long it takes – these global challenges will be addressed and resolved.  Things are not likely to return to what we knew as normal.  Let’s do whatever we can to support the people under our care.  Let’s help support their Black Swan event when it arrives.  They will never be the same again.  And that would be a good thing.